Automotive industry in 1399 from the perspective of experts


Last Persian year for the automotive industry ended while it was full of ups and downs. There were many issues facing this industry; These include rising exchange rates, unbridled growth in car`s market prices, delinquent liabilities, incomplete cars on the factory floor, rising production input rates based on exchange rate fluctuations, steel prices, mandatory car pricing and sanctions. On the other hand, moving towards more localization, more effective and bold presence of parts manufacturers to deepen localization, increase production, introduce new products, relative stability in the car market at the end of the year and also announce the production of products New and mass production for the next year 1400, were the white and positive part of the story. In this regard, we shared 5 questions with automotive experts. Among them, some could not follow this path for various reasons, and others took the time to answer the questions. These questions are asked before the name of the New Year and, in fact, before the beginning of the New Year. In this section, we went to an interview with Dr. Farhad Ehteshamzad, Founder of the Automobile Importers Association, who answered the 5 main questions of horsepower. Questions: 1- What is the most important action taken in the automotive industry? 2. What decision and plan had the most negative impact? 3- Forecast for the year 1400 (next Persian year). 4- Do you agree with car import? 5. What is your model for sustainable development? 1- Answer to the first question Nasim Nicholas Talib, author of the powerful book "Black Swan", tells the story of a turkey that received good food for thousand days by a farmer. Seeing the farmer, the turkey quickly remembered his more and more good food. He was at the peak of his self-confidence, backed by a thousand days of happy memories, but the day of the thousand and one, which was two days before the day of Thanksgiving, changed the situation. This time he saw a farmer holding a sharp ax in his hand and quickly realized that what he had always expected would not happen again and that good days would not last forever. In 1399, when the government was facing many problems due to confusion in the oil, corona and electoral pressures and increasing inflation, it caused the industries with nationalism flaunt and self-sufficiency of our country, which have always relied on the rents of oil-selling governments, Faced with the government's lack of money laundering, their shouts went up in the air. Our turkeys saw the ax in the hands of the government. But since reality does not always go according to the story, in this story our sacrificed turkey, not the carmakers or parts makers, rather there were people who paid the costs of inefficiency in their own pockets in the form of cars price increases. 2- Answer the second question In my opinion, if we ignore the weak role of the government cabinet in preventing the synergy of the current crises, and if we forget the re-appointment of the head of the Ministry of Industry in the middle of this year as the sixth option of this key ministry in Mr. Rouhani's governments, The lack of privatization of quasi-government car companies has been a repetition of the misspellings of the policies of previous governments and the source of a negative impact on the country's car industry. 3- Answer to the third question Due to the continuation of the coronavirus epidemic, the impossibility of privatizing two big carmakers who owned more than 95% of market, increasing workers' wages, market confusion caused by the crisis of the presidential election until the middle of next year, rising inflation, increasing the principal and sub-debts of automaker's bank debts, accumulation of cumulative losses, I do not expect anything except a more severe crisis for this part of the industry. 4- Answer to the forth question Until the exit from the current conditions of international economic isolation, not determining the future and survival way of local car`s part manufacturers and not clarifying the process of automakers privatization which all of these three have an equal importance, any decision and even any talking in this regards was not and will not affect the prohibition of car imports to Iran. 5- Answer to the fifth question The transition from modernization (renewal of the appearance of life) to modernity (intellectual, cultural, behavioral changes and renewal of thoughts and ideas), called "Development" by sociologists. Therefore, after passing the level of welfare and satisfaction (the first four levels of the Maslow pyramid), we can expect development, which is one of the most important signs of development is the possibility of competition in the global market. In order to create global competitiveness, after opening the doors of international trade, it needs economic theory and institution, think tank and coherent negotiations at the macro level with the international community. After doing these as a national development infrastructure, we will be able to talk about sustainable development in the sub-sectors, including the automotive industry. In the face of international sanctions and isolation, all goods will become strategic goods, and since resources are limited, the distribution of limited resources among a wide variety of goods will make none of the local manufactured goods in the level of international competitiveness. It should be borne in mind that in the context of sanctions, which have a long history in our country, the goal was to "meet the need in any possible way" and not to "producing the best."